SCOTUSBlog Predictions on a Possible SCT Nominee in Summer 2009

Jennifer Granholm, our governor, is listed as a dark horse candidate. Our commentary on the other candidates (Kagan, Wood, and Sotomayor) is here. We haven’t yet discussed Jennifer Granholm as a possible Justice.

From SCOTUSBlog:

Before the election, I wrote two posts (here and here) on likely Democratic nominees to the Supreme Court.  It seems an appropriate time for an update.  For example, despite my earlier predictions, Elliot Spitzer’s odds now seem lower, and President Obama is unlikely to appoint himself.

Equally important, we can learn something from the President’s initial appointments to other jobs in the government.  In my opinion, they seem pragmatic and focused on objective qualifications (including academic appointments) and tend less than did those of Clinton and Bush 43 towards friends of the President.  The appointments to date have also involved few totally out of the box and unexpected choices.  The appointments have been diverse, but the choices don’t seem race and gender driven.

We also have the benefit of the President’s specific appointment of Elena Kagan to be SG, which elevates her prospects considerably.

In my opinion, if there is an appointment this summer — which principally means that some otherwise serious candidates will not yet have had the time to be appointed to a court of appeals and develop experience there — there are three reasonably clear front runners, and one dark horse candidate.  All are women, for the simple reason that there is only one woman on the Court now and I cannot imagine that the President will conclude that he cannot find a highly qualified female nominee.

The three obvious candidates are Elena Kagan (SG), Sonia Sotomajor (CA2), and Diane Wood (CA7).  The sleeper candidate is Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm.